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Economic Outlook

September 18 2017
September 18 2017

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Last week, we had local expert, Dr. Robert Eyler, PhD come and speak at our MAR General Membership meeting. Dr. Eyler is the President of Economic Forensics & Analytics, Inc and is a Professor of Economics at Sonoma State University as well as an author, expert witness and a forensic economist.  Previously, other economists have stated that we’re in the 8th year of recovery since the last recession and we’re due for another one.  However, much to my surprise, Dr. Eyler reported that there is largely NO prediction of a recession until at least 2020. The labor markets keep producing jobs, there is no sign of inflation, and interest rates are rising, yet in a predictable way. He reports that we’ve had a slow and steady growth over the past few years and any recession that we go into would be mild as well.

With respect to housing, he reports that housing demand far exceeds supply.  Nationally, housing starts for multi family units is much greater than for single family residences with construction costs rising. He also stated that in Marin, we have still not recovered (adjusted for inflation) since the last recession and that our values are almost 7% down.  However, interest rates remain low and demand is strong so we are still recovering.

As far as other economic conditions, that investor confidence remains high, poverty rates remain a concern and there’s growing income and wealth inequality. He also cautions that drought conditions remain and without rain this season, we’ll be right back into it.

Without a major earthquake, fire, and/or flood, Marin County real estate plugs right along.  Both good news for our Buyers and Sellers and certainly good news for us agents.

In other good news… MAR was able to raise almost $4000 to donate to Schools Rule of Marin http://schoolsrule.org/ Each dollar that Schools Rule raises is allocated evenly to every public school child in the County. The vast inequality of wealth in our County was eye opening for me and it brings me joy to know that we help those who desperately need it but also support the children who are more fortunate as well.  Thank you to those who were able to participate and donate.

Did you check your Friday MAR email?  Mountain Hardware offers employee pricing to MAR members, just in time for the cooler weather.  And if you haven’t already signed up, please register and bring a guest to our first Monte Carlo in Marin event. Casino games, food, music and fun… a great kickoff to the holiday season and an evening to spend with your real estate (or otherwise) friends.


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